Iran is not great
Quote from Ryan Augustine on March 4, 2026, 19:24Dang is the seperation getting to be serious? I thought that was a fringe movement like how we had the stste of jefferson down here for a while. It would certainly be harbinger of the technate if that came to pass.
It looks to be getting more serious by the day. Every day is another “screw you” to Canada by traitor Carney. Each act of treason only fans the flames of separation. It’s getting to a point where it seems deliberate, like Carney wants to fracture Canada to Elon can get his Stalinist North American Technate.
Been thinking and I believe the endgame is to have China come in and rule Iran as a direct proxy. I wrote about this somewhere I can't remember a long time ago, but the reason we went into Afghanistan was because it blocks out Russia and China from the Middle East. One of the last things Trump did in his first term was to abandon Afghanistan giving it back to the towelheads, and leaving a lot of our gear behind so it could be reverse engineered. China has basically one weakness and that is it is highly dependent on importing resources and those imports can be cutoff by the US Navy. This is the reason why China has pursued a belt and road initiative. Strategically it makes sense for China to expand westward and create an overland route to the middle east and Africa, that way they can play to their strength as a land power and subvert western sea power.
So after three weeks of this it seems pretty clear that we went into this bombing campaign with no real plan. Our military has smashed Iran, but its pretty clear that, like Venezuela, the regime is systemic and won't collapse even though it has been decapitated. Even if we could get an revolution going China would step in make sure the ayatollahs stay in power. In fact I believe China is already sending military hardware, missiles and missile launchers, overland into Iran. As I wrote a before withdrawing from Afghanistan was a huge, intentional, mistake and now we can see why. The whole point of occupying Afghanistan was that it blocked Russia, China, and Iran from linking up. I also just want to say that as evil as the Iranian leadership is murdering them while conducting negotiations is an evil act and violates every rule of war and diplomacy.
I wrote during the 12 week war that if we were going to attack Iran we needed to smash them hard. For context when we invaded Iraq a country 1/4 the size of Iran we had: 5-6 aircraft carries in the region, half a million troops, thousands of airplanes, and we were attacking from a much closer position. President Dubya spent over a year convincing the American people it was the right thing to do, built a coalition of 50 countries and even had Colon Power make his case to the UN. Whatever you want to say about that stupid war it was clear that we brought more than enough force to get the job done, there was no question of the outcome from the beginning, and there was a clear mission. You can't say any of those things about this one.
Anyways it has become apparent that as long as Iran can still fire off missiles and threaten shipping then the outcome of the war is a net negative. Wars are easy to start, but not always easy to end and all of our options right now are bad options:
- We could keep things the same and our military can keep bombing Iran, Iran can keep spastically firing off some missiles and drones and shipping will essentially be frozen, except for China apparently (more on that later)
- We can escalate and hit them harder an in more sensitive areas in the hope they cave in
- We can stop bombing them and hope they stop fighting
- We can comply with their demands and leave the middle east
- We can conduct a ground invasion to seize the coastline of the straight of Hormuz and open the shipping lane.
I hate to say it but I think the ground invasion is the best of the bad options, but it has to be executed properly. I think a prolonged bombing campaign, even with escalations, is going to deplete our resources, and I don't think Iran is going to cave in. Ultimately that regime is fighting for their survival and we are going to tire out eventually and when we do Iran will still be there with the keys to the Hormuz straight. I think no matter what when we stop the Iranians will go full steam on trying to get nukes, we will lose face, and China and Russia are going to link up with Iran 10x harder. I'm not a military planner but I would have to imagine a ground invasion to secure Hormuz will probably take between 50-100 thousand troops. We definitely don't have those assets in theater, just shows how poorly planned this whole thing was as it has been know forever that this was a capability of Iran. I don't know what you expect them to do when you kill off all their top guys and demand their regime disappear, its like this was planned bad on purpose.
Speaking of intentional bad planning, like the Ukraine war, we learn that there a certain realities which make us do a double take. Apparently Iran is still producing and shipping oil, and Chinese tankers are being allowed through the straight. Kinda like how Russia was able to send gas through Ukrainian pipelines. Anyways Iran is a regime that is financed by oil for the life of me I can't understand why we don't blockade them. The Iranians are literally blockading everyone else by shutting down the straight. I know the narrative is that Trump will never upset the sacred market or whatever, but come on are we playing to win or just getting played?
I don’t know about that. Russia seemed in full support of the U.S. occupation of Afghanistan, at least for the time it was there.
LOL@Colon Power.
Perhaps depleting our resources is the plan and why Russia has not actually opposed Trump’s so called invasion of Iran other than in words.
I’m no expert on all the countries the U.S. has supposedly liberated, but after Gadaffi, Mubarack, and Maduro, did the regimes change in any tangible way?
Ha you liked that one?
Our aribases in afghanistan allowed us to control central asia and the land routes to the middle east. Thats why it was important, I think Russia probably wanted to use it to get the arabs against us. Sometimes two adversaries pursue the same thing for different reasons.
No literally none of the last 20 regime changes have produced good results. As far as what Russia is doing i think they are sitting back and watching us implode. China definitly has a stake in depleting our missile interceptors.
To be clear I was never in favor of this war, its something that we've blundered into. Already its been a catalyst for dedollarization with Iran forcing countries to pay tolls in the yuan. I just view it now as how we can end it and come away the least bad. I think if it goes on then things can unravel pretty quick. I could be way off base.
One thing that hasn't been brought up is that Iran may already have nukes. Yes they havent tested it, but they may have it nonetheless. It may just be a matter of how confident they are in them, their ability to deliver them on a missile, and not have that missile get shor down.
I guess there is a ceasefire now. Its hard to see what we gained out of all this. The regime is still in power, they still have a nuke and missile program. We blew up a lot of their military hardware, but that can be replaced. Seems like Trump caved to the economic pressure Iran put on the world, he usually talks like a badass when he pulls pussy moves. Wouldn't be suprised if Israel violates the ceasefire just to get Trump to attack Iran again, for op sig reasons.
If this is true then Iran definitely won
IRAN'S 10-POINT PEACE PLAN
1. Commitment to non-aggression
2. Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz
3. Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment
4. Lifting of all primary sanctions
5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions
6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions
7. Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions
8. Paying compensation to Iran
9. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon
Trump said that the 10-point proposal 'is a workable basis on which to negotiate,' despite saying on Monday that the deal was not 'good enough
Quote from Ryan Augustine on April 7, 2026, 19:39I guess there is a ceasefire now. Its hard to see what we gained out of all this. The regime is still in power, they still have a nuke and missile program. We blew up a lot of their military hardware, but that can be replaced. Seems like Trump caved to the economic pressure Iran put on the world, he usually talks like a badass when he pulls pussy moves. Wouldn't be suprised if Israel violates the ceasefire just to get Trump to attack Iran again, for op sig reasons.
If Iran was Putin/Xi’s idea, then nothing was gained. Trump is just keeping the forces distracted, killing them off, and squandering American resources.
If Iran was Putin/Xi’s idea, then nothing was gained. Trump is just keeping the forces distracted, killing them off, and squandering American resources.
They're looking like the big winners in this. Oil sanctions taken away, oil shipping paying tolls to Iran in Yuan is a harbinger of the end of the petrodollar. There is a silver lining to this though, we can get back to the Epstien files 🙃