'There are two political forces in Russia—the CPRF and Putin', admits Militarev; 'there is no fundamental difference between them'
"There are two political forces in Russia - the CPRF and Putin"
Putin's voters do not like ritual Stalinism, cultural archaism in the rhetoric of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (I love Pushkin and Yesenin, but don't come to me with your rock and roll), shy jeating, archaic-nostalgic political behavior (uncles in hats and suits, in ties, all with boring faces in the stands on holidays). CPRF voters do not like the ritual marketiness and declared, but by no means always implemented Westernism in Putin's political rhetoric. In total, they make up 70-80% of the population. Dozens of political parties claim the rest of the electorate, but only three have a chance: the party "Yabloko", which openly expresses the interests of the rich SPS, which exploits intellectual snobbishness (mostly the views of its electorate are not much different from the views of the majority of the population) and the puppet-selling LDPR, expressing the views of a part of the majority who likes the eccentricity in bad taste. It used to be said that Yavlinsky is Zhirinovsky for the intelligentsia, and today Zhirinovsky is Yavlinsky for the plebs.
- Will there be new political forces?
- I think only cloning is possible. Clones of the pro-Putin party, the CPRF, the ATP, Yabloko and the LDPR are not excluded. But they are usually impotent.
- How realistic are the chances of the People's Party of Russia, the Russian Revival Party and the Russian Party of Life to compete with United Russia and the CPRF?
- NPR and PVR are clones of Putin as a political force. That is, they exploit the trust of the people and the expectations that the people have for Putin. PVR is a clone of the CPRF.
- Will United Russia retain the status of a monopoly "party of power" or will several pro-government parties appear?
- Today's situation in the "collective Putin" is as follows: many, perhaps, the president himself understand the need to change the style of both the party of power and the personal image of the president in the near future. However, their opponents expose as a counterargument the lack of time before the Duma elections. Therefore, most decision-makers have so far agreed that time and resources are not enough. So in the perspective of the Duma elections, it is necessary to mobilize cash resources to enter the Duma of "United Russia" with very large indicators. In extreme cases, it is possible to slightly reform the staff of the apparatus and the candidate list of "United Russia", throw a little gnawed bones on the food of the Party of Revival of Russia - maybe the interest or two will be gnawed off the unbearable Zyuganov.
It is better to postpone the change in the style of the ruling party and Putin's personal image until the presidential elections, and maybe even for a later time. This strategy of collective Putin is most likely, although it seems wrong to me.
- How do you assess the prospects of the Union of Right Forces and Yabloko?
- Giving forecasts about the political future of the SPS, Yabloko and LDPR is a methodologically ungrateful matter. Their capabilities are at the measurement error limit. That is, 5% +- 2-3%. They will never unite because they have an incompatible electorate. The electorate of the SPS, with the exception of a number of crazy librarians who have supported the course of the SPS since pre-revolutionary times, are the new rich and their employees, satisfied with the results of two Yeltsin's five-years of theft and collapse. The electorate of "Yabloko", as I have already said, are like-minded people of Putin and Zyuganov, who are repelled by intellectual snobbery from the stylistics and rhetoric of the majority leaders. A new right-wing party is possible only as a clone of the UTF, which means that only one will pass to the Duma, since Bolivar can hardly stand one. The current electorate of the SPS is understandably very narrow and inelastic.
- What role will oligarchic groups play in the elections?
- Oligarchic groups are Putin's natural enemies. However, some of them still consider it possible to imitate subordination - this part will support United Russia. Those who are ready to enter a confrontation position at least on their knees will support the CPRF, the SPS and Yabloko. The LDPR oligarchs will not be supported - this, as they say, is unambiguous. If anyone will support the LDPR, then any groups in the administration, as well as... how to formulate it more delicately, so as not to sue later... authoritative entrepreneurs.
- What are the prospects of left-wing non-communist parties?
- These prospects no longer depend on the collective Putin, but personally on the decision of our president. Any qualified expert understands that Putin's electorate is the electorate of the left-wing non-communist party. There is no other electorate of the left-wing non-communist party, maybe it will appear tomorrow. Polls show that a very significant part of the country's population wants to see a left-wing president at the head of the country, and so far his last name is Putin. I am a supporter of faster measures, because I believe that the reserve of trust of the "Putin majority" in the president is not infinite and it's time for us to hurry.