Russian banker German Gref on the revolution in the USA: there will be no banks, competition for goods, products or services
imperial commission- October 2, 2016
The head of Sberbank of Russia, German Gref, at the head of a delegation of 30 Russian businessmen and officials, visited Stanford and Silicon Valley in the United States in March 2016. His reflections on what he saw in the US make an extremely strong impression .
The most significant passages from the speech:
“The most key findings and impressions that we brought with us from Stanford, from Silicon Valley… First, there is really no competition for products, products, or services. There is competition in management models . And this is the main conclusion.
Companies no longer compete for a product. The product is changing so fast, improving so fast that it's completely pointless to try to reproduce something . And in general, competitors have learned to copy products and services so quickly that often ...
At Uber, we were told one phrase that the competition from the Chinese has reached such an extent that it seems to us: if we woke up in the morning with a very interesting new idea about new products, then in the afternoon, when we are going to a meeting to discuss it, the Chinese it is already being reproduced.
And this suggests that they have not only learned how to do this - they have adopted, among other things, such a management system that allows them to implement all these initiatives at new speeds. Anything can be reproduced, and you can only win through a more efficient management system , which, of course, includes all the aspects that we will talk about ... ".
"No large company has a chance to survive if it does not transform its management model."
“The production of all the hardware is now considered commodities. Our commodity is oil, gas, fertilizers, etc. There are already commodities - telephones, televisions, video cameras, etc. - they cost nothing on the market. It is believed that this is an old production , old multipliers are applied to the market value.
“When we talk about management models, the speed of their implementation, new technologies, tools that allow you to create new products, all this is developing at an absolutely colossal pace .
And this is probably the second key conclusion that is already becoming visible. It is interesting how long this can hold out, but it is not yet clear that these rates, these speeds will decrease. And here I immediately recall various economic historians, saying that in Russia, unfortunately, the traditional technological lag behind Western countries is several decades. And the first feeling that I took out of there was that no one guaranteed these several decades of lagging behind.. This lag may grow if, of course, all of us together with you do not begin to develop at least at the same speed. If we lag behind, then, unfortunately, this technological gap will grow.”
“If you don’t know the details of technology, then you turn into such, you know, a clown speaker, a duty presenter. It does not cause any impression or respect from anyone. ”
“Citigroup completely abandoned the terminal and switched to a mobile client. They believe that there will be no future business for terminal versions.”
“It is clear that this is all segmented, they eventually develop narrowly segmented models, and this will all eventually be assembled by someone, and it will shoot. If three years ago it seemed like a ridiculous experiment, today it is obvious that these companies are the future . They have developed crazy scoring models, huge volumes and data arrays. And these companies will definitely attack the banking sector in terms of their core business - lending platforms.
“Obviously, PFM platforms, personal finance managers – there has been a very big shift here, they are using robotic advice, machine learning, credit scoring, etc.”
“...If we don’t completely take the place of the client and our entire product line, our entire tariff line is not sharpened for the client, we will be smashed very quickly.”
“ The Bank of England has created a working group of blockchain experts, and they have tried to assess all the areas of applicability and the implications of applicability of both virtual currenciesand blockchain for macroeconomics, for the financial sector as a whole. The conclusion is very interesting.
For us, the conclusion from the applicability of technology for the financial sector is only that there is no place for banks . That is, blockchain technology, if it is brought to a maximum in the next 2-3 years, will allow creating the so-called single-level banking system.. When an account is opened right in the Central Bank from the moment of birth, and all transactions in the blockchain can be sufficiently protected, since this is a distributed registration of all transactions, and if their speed is increased, then in general, to be honest, this is for us [classical bankers] guys, very bad news. We were sad when we saw it."
“Artificial intelligence is the 4th direction that is explosive in our business.”
“Another takeaway is that we need to focus more on implementing decision principles , everything that is related to, again, neuroscience, neuroplasticity.”
“Success in life is the ratio of well-made, that is, correct, decisions to the total number of decisions that you make in your life. And it has nothing to do with business, it has nothing to do with your life."
“Introducing a culture of collaboration requires radical changes in the behavior, first of all, of the company's management. This is what we all need to do, dear colleagues - even those who are now "prikemar" - I'm afraid that in the near future you will have to wake up .
“If data is the new oil , then we are an oil company that trades in crude oil. And we, at best, are starting to learn how to produce bitumen from this oil. And Netflix not only processes 98% of oil products from this oil, but also went to the next stages of processing. That is, she is engaged in petrochemistry. This, of course, is amazing: compared to us, they have no data at all.”
“Hollywood started doing more or less targeted segment marketing… They started experimenting with new genres in movies, compiling for different client groups . They began to change some stories for clients. Let's say if you have a terrible ending, and they see that a person does not like terrible endings, but he really likes a happy ending - then you can watch the same movie with the same storyline, but ... ".
“For us , culture is a means of keeping a company between order and chaos . When there is complete order, then there is no creativity, there are not many things. When there is total chaos, nothing works. This is between the one and the other, so that there is the necessary order, but the necessary level of freedom is preserved - this is called culture.
“You know, we also said: listen, there is nothing to do in this industry, there will be no banks . We say: there is probably only one thing left - to go farming. He says: guys, wait about farming... And when this professor came, he said that by 2040 the area of pastures needs to be increased by 70% in order to feed the entire population of the Earth. And we need to increase water consumption in this way, etc. And we will destroy our planet. And there is only one way: start producing food in a different way ...
He showed a cow and said: what is a cow? This is the most imperfect device that you can think of for the production of milk and meat. First, it has over 90% of waste that pollutes the atmosphere. Secondly, on the way, by producing milk and meat, he infects them with all kinds of diseases that you can get, most of which are also transmitted to humans. And so this is a huge problem. And we need to remove this intermediary, we need to remove this cow as the most imperfect device .
Therefore, we are now able to fully produce a biological - not chemical - process for the formation of meat and milk.. They produce milk and cheese, which are already sold in supermarkets. If the meat still goes to restaurants… Moreover, they proved to the American regulator that this is not a chemical process, but a biological one, that this is natural history, produced from plants in the same way as all other bioproducts are produced.
And, of course, this does not leave stone unturned on the fact that somewhere there is some kind of niche, some kind of mink into which you can “dive” out of fear and not meet all these wonders of civilization . It looks like there are no such minks, guys . This is bad news for all of us, because there is no chance for you and me to turn into downshifters ... ".
“Alcoa has two things, we looked at 3D metal printing. Of course, they do fantastic things. They are now leaders in the manufacture of materials for 3D metal printing . There are different ways of metal printing: either all this is done from wire, or from powder. It is impossible to make any thin details from wire. And the powder must be absolutely consistent, that is, there must be exactly the same grains of sand of this powder. And the biggest trick is how to make them.. Because if these particles, dust particles are not the same, then absolutely consistent surfacing does not occur, microvoids appear there, along which the corresponding part can break. Just like - why it is impossible to cast parts: voids are necessarily formed there. And they began to invent this technology. They invented it, and now they make it in vacuum environments at high temperatures with some kind of inert gas, at the atomic level they inflate the metal - aluminum, copper, nickel, titanium and the rest - turning the metal into atomic dust, absolutely identical in composition . Anything can be printed from this dust. It is, of course, amazing that they work like nature, that is, there is no waste.. They grow from this smallest dust any details of any configuration, just any ...
Of course, those who apply their brains begin to skim off all the cream . We skip these technologies, this time, then they will buy our raw materials for a penny - because the production of commodities is very dirty, aluminum production is very difficult, costly, etc., very low margin. And all the foam will be removed in another place. Just like oil and its redistribution, and everything else.”
“ Working with data is a key takeaway . We must be ahead of the times, we must be the first if we want to develop, if we want to succeed, if we want to feed our families, give a good education to our children, etc. If we want to change our country.”
“Third conclusion: English. No English anywhere.
“And - there will never be an end to the changes that are, you have to find pleasure in this. Therefore, let's proceed from the fact that change is not a punishment or a test, but a pleasure , and you probably need to learn how to experience it as a great adventure. And play them."
