Red Nostradamus
02/03/2023
Americans thought Waterman was crazy when he prophesied the victory of communism in Vietnam. Then they lamented - and mourned the 60 thousand soldiers who died in vain.
In July 1930, the U.S. Consul in Saigon, Henry Waterman, made the State Department question its adequacy. Prior to this, Waterman had been referred to in reports as "an exceptionally competent diplomat" who, among other things, "devotes two hours a day before sunset to physical exercise." But his next dispatch threw Washington into bewilderment: “Are you sure everything is fine with Waterman? Maybe he had an attack of malaria? In the letter, the consul predicted the future victory of communism in Indochina.
At that time in the West almost no one heard about the communists in that region. And hardly anyone could name their leader - Nguyen Tat Thanh, pseudonym Nguyen Ai Quoc. Waterman's letter was dismissed as an unfortunate misunderstanding - but after 15 years, the "red threat" became a reality. On September 2, 1945, the establishment of the independent Democratic Republic of Vietnam was proclaimed in Saigon. The same Nguyen Ai Quoc became its leader. True, he went down in history under his other pseudonym - Ho Chi Minh.
Little is known about the family of Henry Waterman, the man who brilliantly predicted the future of Vietnam even before Vietnam itself guessed it. Before coming to the US, his ancestors had the surname Wasserman and spoke Yiddish. Henry himself was born already in Seattle, graduated from the University of California and entered the diplomatic service. The young diplomat did not have special connections, so a good job - like the US diplomatic mission in the British Empire, France or Germany - did not shine for him. They sent him to the Norwegian city of Kristiansand - in 1913 Norway was "a poor country with a disgusting climate and a little-known language."
After the First World War, Waterman held positions in the American consulates in Guatemala, Nicaragua and Costa Rica, then rose to the rank of consul and was transferred to Shanghai. In 1929, he received a new appointment as consul to Saigon. The colonies of French Indochina—modern Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia—had a reputation for being wild. One of Waterman's predecessors, Harris Cookingham, even applied to the US State Department with a request to release him from the obligation to send monthly reports. “Political events that it makes sense to report on do not occur here at all,” the consul argued. Waterman himself wrote of Laos: "Most of the population roams the jungle without clothes, earning their livelihood with a bow with poisoned arrows."
Saigon, where Waterman found himself, was the capital of the Cochin China colony. According to him, the inhabitants of this colony were the only ones who, under the French, began to live better than before them. The new consul was lucky with the timing of his appointment. A year before his arrival in Saigon, the United States opened a regular steamship service with China, and Waterman set about developing bilateral trade. Thanks to his efforts, industrial refrigerators were installed on sailing ships. This made it possible to supply the city with vegetables and fruits from California. He also introduced American car tires to the Vietnamese market. Despite the fact that Vietnam was the patrimony of the "tire kings" of the Michelin brothers, who owned huge rubber plantations there.
Under the leadership of an energetic diplomat, even the consulate itself found new premises. The house where it is located used to belong to one of the leading businessmen of the city - Thomas Victor Holba. In the past, he served in the French navy. After retiring, he settled in Saigon, opened a pharmacy, became rich, became interested in archeology and collecting local antiquities - his collection was even exhibited at the World Exhibition in Paris in 1899. When Holbe died, the heirs sold the collection to a local museum and rented the house to the Americans.
The authorities in Washington were pleased with the new building - as well as the new consul: “Waterman showed himself excellently during his six months in Saigon, especially compared to his predecessor. He knows and covers the political situation very well.” Instead of a three-hour siesta, as was customary with other colonial officials, Waterman set aside 20 minutes for lunch. He was engaged in physical education every day and, together with his wife, traveled all over Indochina by car.
In addition, Waterman was an excellent storyteller and writer. American newspapers and magazines periodically published his notes: for example, that due to the popularity of shoes and other snake skin products in the States, Cochinchin, where most snakes are mined, was flooded with hordes of rats - there was no one to hunt them. But basically, in every way, he painted the advantages that trade with Indochina through the port of Saigon promises to American business.
A dispatch sent to the State Department in July 1930 by Waterman nearly brought his reputation into question. Washington did not believe that the "Reds" could be a real force in Indochina - and they had good reason to do so. The Communist Party of Vietnam, formed that same year, had barely 2,000 members. In addition, most of its members did not even live in Vietnam, but in other countries of Southeast Asia. Yes, the Communists held several demonstrations on May 1 with red flags - so what? On the other hand, the nationalists - whom the US State Department monitored more closely - had a much larger number of supporters and even raised an armed uprising in the city of Yen Bai. The French crushed the rebellion by sending 52 participants to the guillotine, and 33 to prison. How can you even compare these two games? It seems that Mr. Consul has heard enough of French journalists, clever at inventing. That's probably what Washington thought.
But soon after the May Day demonstration of the "Reds", a peasant uprising began in two provinces of Vietnam. The colonial officials fled, they were replaced by local councils (!) led by the communists. If the Yenbai uprising was suppressed in eight days, then the French troops could not cope with the peasants for more than a year. Over 10,000 Vietnamese were killed in the clashes. Consul Waterman reported to the State Department about this rebellion too - but they habitually twisted their finger at the temple and refrained from any reaction.
But, as Waterman wrote, the Vietnamese communists proved to be a huge force. After the Second World War, the country achieved independence from France - this is how the first socialist state appeared in Southeast Asia. The ensuing attempt by the United States to save Asia from the Red Menace led to years of war. The United States lost it, paying with 58,000 lives of its soldiers.
As for Henry Waterman, he worked in Saigon until 1933. Then he was transferred to the German city of Breslau, now it is the Polish Wroclaw, and even later he finally rose to positions in the British Empire - the consulate in English Sheffield and Indian Bombay. At the beginning of World War II, Waterman was sent to the French city of Bordeaux. He was involved in the evacuation of compatriots from occupied France.
Interestingly, the diplomat's aunt, Mrs. Ulman, was a German citizen. In the summer of 1940, together with several thousand Jews, she was deported to France and interned in the Gurs camp. The US Consul General in Bordeaux, Henry Fullerton, asked the head of the camp to release Mrs. Ulman, guaranteeing her financial support. The answer came nine days later - it was a notice of her death.
Henry Waterman's diplomatic career ended in Mexico. Where and when he died, and indeed whether he lived to see his prediction about the victory of communism in Vietnam come true, is unknown.