This is pure speculation from me, but here it out.
China has long coveted the Island of Taiwan, in the Chicom mind Taiwan is a severed core territory of the Han Chinese.
Due to its geography China is isolated from the world by mountains and Siberia, so for China to truly exert its power on the world stage it must become a sea power. Again, due to geography, China's seaboard is ringed by island chains which are held by countries which are hostile to it (China's fault). Therefore the ability for China to project power, and secure its shipping that it heavily relies on, is blocked by the islands which allow for air and missile interception of ships.
Below is a list of quick facts pertinent to the discussion:
China is preparing its military to invade Taiwan, currently they are in the buildup phase with key naval assets not scheduled to come online for about a year.(1)
China is becoming the world's gold capital (2)
China is the economic engine of BRICS (3)
China controls the rare earth elements market (4)
China is stockpiling oil and is constructing pipelines to Russia. (5) (6)
The Stock market would be operating at a loss without the "magnificent 7" companies (7)
The "magnificent 7" are the AI companies. AI is works by building city sized supercomputers with NVIDIA GPU's (Graphics Processing Units, i.e. computer modules) (8)
NVIDIA does not manufacture its own chips, Taiwan Semiconductors does. TSMC produces 90% of its chips in Taiwan. TSMC is virtually the global supplier of advanced computer chips. (9)
AI is not profitable and is being propped up with massive investments, a lot of which comes from Trump (11) (12) (13) (14) (15)
Jerome Powell the chair of the fed will resign in May, Trump will pick his replacement (10)
What do all these things have to do with one another? What follows is what I believe to be the Chicom mindset and plan for the coming conflict:
The first is to understand that one of the lessens which came out of WW2 is that dominance, and military power is derived from economic power. The US economy has long been overvalued on the balance sheet. AI does not have many practical uses, aside from maybe pattern recognition in a police state. There is no path to profitability for AI because it does not do anything well, and it is enormously costly. The construction of AI data centers is little more that a make work program for big companies to boost stock prices. (unless it is strategic stockpiling of computer chips under cloak, which would be interesting)
The stock market, and ergo public perception of the economy, is hinged upon AI. Without it we would be in stock market recession.
What props up AI and the stock market, is access to low interest rate loans, or easy money. In the effort to keep inflation down Jerome Powell has not kept interest rates as artificially low as Trump would like. When Powell's term is up it is widely expected that Trump will appoint a FED Chair who will cut interest rates back to pre 2020 levels so that investors (gamblers) have more easy money to pump into stocks and venture capital.
How this relates to China:
The communist goal is to replace the US dominated/"NATO" world order with the BRICS regional union governmental models. Their strategy is twofold: Make BRICS the world's reserve currency by destroying the US economy, and allow China to project military power throughout the world. Cohenincidentally these two things have aligned on the island of Taiwan.
Since the US economy essentially is propped up by tech overvaluations, which rely on growth predictions, and since the critical resources that power that economy: chips, and rare earth elements are all in the hands of either the Chinese or the Taiwanese. When/if the conflict over Taiwan occurs the US Tech industry will be cutoff from its supply chains and the tens of trillions invested into Tech stocks will see huge losses. Margin calls, bank defaults, and sell offs will ensue. This will likely flood the economy with money supply and cause severe inflation as money seeks to escape from the stock market into other assets.
Since interest rates are artificially low, any stimulus will exacerbate the inflation problem. The US Dollar will be severely weakened and a currency based on the gold standard will be extremely attractive to trade in compared to the Dollar. This is the plan for the establishment of the gold backed BRICS world currency.
China believes all they need to do is gain a foothold on Taiwan and the US will to fight the prospect of a prolonged war in southeast Asia with a crumbling economy will not last long.
The timeline: predicting when this will happen is very difficult, and extremely speculative, if indeed we do not just continue with business as usual for forever. However, from what can be assessed on the internet China will not be ready until 2026-2027 at the earliest. This will give about a year for the Trump Fed to pump in a lot or easy money into the economy. (even with more easy money it is unclear how much longer the market can continue to rise without a recession. Ultimately stock prices are tethered to the reality of business costs, profits and losses, no matter how much free investment capital saturates the market. The economic downturn may occur even before the war with Taiwan will begin, which would be more beneficial for China.) Lastly should the economy crash and the war over Taiwan kick off in the last part of the Trump presidency the US will elect a communist to be president after Trump following the COVID playbook of a crises preceding an election. Perhaps it will be Gavin Newsom who has all the optics to be presidential, but who is a Manchurian Candidate if there ever was one.
Sources:
1: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-29/us-intelligence-warns-china-ferries-built-for-taiwan-preparation/105606720
2: https://www.equiti.com/sc-en/news/market-insights/chinas-gold-strategy-courting-foreign-reserves-to-reshape-global-finance/
3: https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/04/12/china-continues-to-dominate-an-expanded-brics/
4: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/chinese-behemoths-what-chinas-rare-earths-dominance-means-us
5: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-accelerates-oil-reserve-site-build-amid-stockpiling-drive-2025-10-07/
6: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202411/1323279.shtml
7: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bill_stone/2025/11/02/sp-500-q3-2025-earnings-surge-magnificent-7-lead-market-rally/
8: https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/01/13/magnificent-seven-ai-stocks-make-up-a-huge-part-of-the-sp-500-artificial-intelligence
9: https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/07/18/tsmc-nvidia-chip-maker-posts-record-profits
10: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-faces-turbulent-2026-powells-term-ends-independence-tested-2025-12-09/
11: https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/07/icymi-president-trump-announces-92-billion-in-ai-energy-powerhouse-investments/
12: https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2025/09/24/trump-backed-stargate-project-unveils-plans-for-5-ai-sites-00577792
13: https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-is-a-systemic-risk-to-the-tech-industry-2/
14: https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-does-not-expect-be-cash-flow-positive-until-2029-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-03-26/
15: https://futurism.com/ai-far-away-profit-experts-warn
This is pure speculation from me, but here it out.
China has long coveted the Island of Taiwan, in the Chicom mind Taiwan is a severed core territory of the Han Chinese.
Due to its geography China is isolated from the world by mountains and Siberia, so for China to truly exert its power on the world stage it must become a sea power. Again, due to geography, China's seaboard is ringed by island chains which are held by countries which are hostile to it (China's fault). Therefore the ability for China to project power, and secure its shipping that it heavily relies on, is blocked by the islands which allow for air and missile interception of ships.
Below is a list of quick facts pertinent to the discussion:
China is preparing its military to invade Taiwan, currently they are in the buildup phase with key naval assets not scheduled to come online for about a year.(1)
China is becoming the world's gold capital (2)
China is the economic engine of BRICS (3)
China controls the rare earth elements market (4)
China is stockpiling oil and is constructing pipelines to Russia. (5) (6)
The Stock market would be operating at a loss without the "magnificent 7" companies (7)
The "magnificent 7" are the AI companies. AI is works by building city sized supercomputers with NVIDIA GPU's (Graphics Processing Units, i.e. computer modules) (8)
NVIDIA does not manufacture its own chips, Taiwan Semiconductors does. TSMC produces 90% of its chips in Taiwan. TSMC is virtually the global supplier of advanced computer chips. (9)
AI is not profitable and is being propped up with massive investments, a lot of which comes from Trump (11) (12) (13) (14) (15)
Jerome Powell the chair of the fed will resign in May, Trump will pick his replacement (10)
What do all these things have to do with one another? What follows is what I believe to be the Chicom mindset and plan for the coming conflict:
The first is to understand that one of the lessens which came out of WW2 is that dominance, and military power is derived from economic power. The US economy has long been overvalued on the balance sheet. AI does not have many practical uses, aside from maybe pattern recognition in a police state. There is no path to profitability for AI because it does not do anything well, and it is enormously costly. The construction of AI data centers is little more that a make work program for big companies to boost stock prices. (unless it is strategic stockpiling of computer chips under cloak, which would be interesting)
The stock market, and ergo public perception of the economy, is hinged upon AI. Without it we would be in stock market recession.
What props up AI and the stock market, is access to low interest rate loans, or easy money. In the effort to keep inflation down Jerome Powell has not kept interest rates as artificially low as Trump would like. When Powell's term is up it is widely expected that Trump will appoint a FED Chair who will cut interest rates back to pre 2020 levels so that investors (gamblers) have more easy money to pump into stocks and venture capital.
How this relates to China:
The communist goal is to replace the US dominated/"NATO" world order with the BRICS regional union governmental models. Their strategy is twofold: Make BRICS the world's reserve currency by destroying the US economy, and allow China to project military power throughout the world. Cohenincidentally these two things have aligned on the island of Taiwan.
Since the US economy essentially is propped up by tech overvaluations, which rely on growth predictions, and since the critical resources that power that economy: chips, and rare earth elements are all in the hands of either the Chinese or the Taiwanese. When/if the conflict over Taiwan occurs the US Tech industry will be cutoff from its supply chains and the tens of trillions invested into Tech stocks will see huge losses. Margin calls, bank defaults, and sell offs will ensue. This will likely flood the economy with money supply and cause severe inflation as money seeks to escape from the stock market into other assets.
Since interest rates are artificially low, any stimulus will exacerbate the inflation problem. The US Dollar will be severely weakened and a currency based on the gold standard will be extremely attractive to trade in compared to the Dollar. This is the plan for the establishment of the gold backed BRICS world currency.
China believes all they need to do is gain a foothold on Taiwan and the US will to fight the prospect of a prolonged war in southeast Asia with a crumbling economy will not last long.
The timeline: predicting when this will happen is very difficult, and extremely speculative, if indeed we do not just continue with business as usual for forever. However, from what can be assessed on the internet China will not be ready until 2026-2027 at the earliest. This will give about a year for the Trump Fed to pump in a lot or easy money into the economy. (even with more easy money it is unclear how much longer the market can continue to rise without a recession. Ultimately stock prices are tethered to the reality of business costs, profits and losses, no matter how much free investment capital saturates the market. The economic downturn may occur even before the war with Taiwan will begin, which would be more beneficial for China.) Lastly should the economy crash and the war over Taiwan kick off in the last part of the Trump presidency the US will elect a communist to be president after Trump following the COVID playbook of a crises preceding an election. Perhaps it will be Gavin Newsom who has all the optics to be presidential, but who is a Manchurian Candidate if there ever was one.
Sources:
1: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-29/us-intelligence-warns-china-ferries-built-for-taiwan-preparation/105606720
2: https://www.equiti.com/sc-en/news/market-insights/chinas-gold-strategy-courting-foreign-reserves-to-reshape-global-finance/
3: https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/04/12/china-continues-to-dominate-an-expanded-brics/
4: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/chinese-behemoths-what-chinas-rare-earths-dominance-means-us
5: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-accelerates-oil-reserve-site-build-amid-stockpiling-drive-2025-10-07/
6: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202411/1323279.shtml
7: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bill_stone/2025/11/02/sp-500-q3-2025-earnings-surge-magnificent-7-lead-market-rally/
8: https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/01/13/magnificent-seven-ai-stocks-make-up-a-huge-part-of-the-sp-500-artificial-intelligence
9: https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/07/18/tsmc-nvidia-chip-maker-posts-record-profits
10: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-faces-turbulent-2026-powells-term-ends-independence-tested-2025-12-09/
11: https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/07/icymi-president-trump-announces-92-billion-in-ai-energy-powerhouse-investments/
12: https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2025/09/24/trump-backed-stargate-project-unveils-plans-for-5-ai-sites-00577792
13: https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-is-a-systemic-risk-to-the-tech-industry-2/
14: https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-does-not-expect-be-cash-flow-positive-until-2029-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-03-26/
15: https://futurism.com/ai-far-away-profit-experts-warn
