“The fall of Ukraine is the revival of the USSR”: with whom will Turkey and Erdogan remain
Feb. 27, 2022 Anno Domini
Azat Akhunov on the reaction of official Ankara and Turkish experts to Russia's military special operation
Turkey may suffer more than other countries, in addition to Russia and Ukraine, in the current conflict, such reflections are found among local analysts, the well-known orientalist Azat Akhunov points out. Ankara is used to being friends with both Moscow and Kiev, the citizens of these two countries are the key to the success of the Turkish tourism industry, and trade with these states is also growing noticeably. Whose side will President Erdogan take? The regular contributor of BUSINESS Online reflects on this.
Maneuvering between the "big brother" and the "Russian bear"
The events of recent days in Ukraine have forced the leaders of most countries to clearly define their relationship with Russia - for or against. Some of them found themselves in a very difficult position, literally between a rock and a hard place. First of all, this affected Israel and Turkey, which, maneuvering between the "big brother" and the "Russian bear", as well as taking into account their own national interests, are trying to maintain the status quo.
Jerusalem maintains close and mutually beneficial relations with both Russia and Ukraine. The main reason is concern for the safety of the large Jewish community in these two countries. Despite mass emigration, in post-Soviet Ukraine the actual number of Jews reaches about 360-400 thousand, in Russia - 150 thousand. In addition, the Russian Aerospace Forces cover the northeast of the country on the border with Syria.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan , after the well-known incident with the Russian Su-24M bomber in November 2015 and the subsequent sharp deterioration in relations with Russia, is trying to restrain his emotions. The result was a sharp increase in trade between the countries. In 2021, it amounted to $33.3 billion (of which exports - $26.8 billion, imports - $6.49 billion), an increase of 59.9% compared to the same period last year. Similarly, the trade turnover between Turkey and Ukraine increased by 50% in the period from January to September 2021 and reached $5 billion. Turkey has strategic economic relations with both Russia and Ukraine in many sectors including tourism, energy and food.
So far, despite unprecedented pressure, both countries have still managed to avoid participation in the program of sanctions restrictions against Russia, making do with routine diplomatic statements that "the territorial integrity and sovereignty of countries should be respected" and "this unjust and illegal action".
It is expected that official Jerusalem at the next session of the UN General Assembly will condemn Russia's actions in the Donbass, which he tried to avoid in various ways. Recall that in 2014, at a similar meeting on Crimea, the representative of Israel managed to avoid voting by “skipping” the session under a plausible pretext.
This time, everything is much more serious. Israel will have to join the anti-Russian sanctions. If Russia is excluded from the SWIFT system, Israeli banks will have no choice: they will have to stop cooperating with Russian banks. In the event that sanctions are imposed on air traffic, Israel is unlikely to be able to stop the flights of Russian airlines and the admission of tourists from Russia. The situation is similar with Turkey, which will defend its tourism sector to the last.
In addition, one cannot ignore the fact that the so-called collective West wants to leave free possible platforms for peace negotiations. As you know, Erdogan has repeatedly offered himself as a moderator of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Israel made similar proposals. At the moment, both sides of the conflict are satisfied with these sites. Turkey, due to its greater distance from the United States and Western allies, would probably be preferable for Moscow.
On Friday, Turkey abstained from voting on the suspension of Russia's rights in the Council of Europe, as it stands for the continuation of the dialogue under any circumstances. Thus, Ankara once again showed that it is important for it to maintain peace with both Russia and Ukraine.
But so far the reality is that all attempts to start peace negotiations have failed. And at the same time, each side blames the other.
How did Turkey perceive the conflict in Ukraine?
All this does not mean at all that the population of these countries approves the policies of their leaders. Both in Israel and in Turkey there are rallies in support of Ukraine. In Turkey, this topic has become a leading one on the pages of newspapers and television channels. What is the attitude in Turkey to the special operation conducted by Russia in the Donbass? What awaits Turkey in the foreseeable future if it takes one side or another? All this is discussed by local experts.
Well-known journalist and writer Murat Akan believes that one should not wish Ukraine's defeat. “The fall of Ukraine is the revival of the USSR. The occupation of Ukraine is a big geopolitical loss for Turkey. For her, the territorial integrity of Ukraine is as important as the territorial integrity of Syria,” he says.
According to Burak Pehlivan , president of the business people's association, Turkey will be hit the hardest by this crisis after Russia and Ukraine. “The fire in the neighborhood will definitely come to you,” Pehlivan said. Even without serious sanctions from Ukraine or Russia, Turkey would suffer significant losses if the two countries entered the war economy, Pehlivan said. “If the economic movement in these countries stops, the whole world will suffer. No special sanctions are required. In all areas, from staple foods to energy, negative impacts can occur. These are two very important countries for Turkey in the field of tourism. Such tensions affect us the most after them,” he said.
One of the influential experts in Turkey in the field of strategy , Erol Muterjimleroglu , believes that both Kiev and Moscow are important for Ankara. There are many economic reasons, such as tourism and trade, as well as large imports from Russia, that Turkey cannot ignore. In other words, the expert believes that Erdogan will not take one side and speak out sharply against the other. In this case, he will not speak negatively about Russia.
The experience of the last 10 years has indeed shown that when this was done on the basis of the emotions and personal ideological preferences of the Turkish president (once the prime minister), it was very harmful to diplomacy, relations and the country as a whole.
As we can see, there is no consensus. In Turkey, everyone is waiting for news, events are developing according to an unpredictable scenario. In addition, there is no clear position of the country's leadership, hence such uncertainty.
Will Erdogan close the Black Sea straits?
On Saturday evening, sensational news spread in the media that Turkey was ready to close its straits for the passage of Russian warships. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that Turkey had banned the passage of Russian warships through the Black Sea straits. “Thank you to my friend President Erdogan and the people of Turkey for their strong support. The ban on the passage of Russian warships to the Black Sea and significant military and humanitarian support to Ukraine are extremely important today. The people of Ukraine will not forget this,” he tweeted.
This news did not even have time to get into the top, since the Turkish side immediately denied it. According to the newspaper Cumhüriyet, Turkey did not impose restrictions on the passage of Russian warships through the Bosporus and Dardanelles. The Russian side also denied this information. The Russian Embassy in Turkey has not received any official notification from the Turkish side regarding the closure of the straits for Russian warships.
What was it? Earlier, Ukrainian Ambassador to Ankara Vasily Bodnar said that the Ukrainian authorities could apply to the Turkish government to block the strait for Russia on the basis of the Montreux Convention. On February 24, the Ukrainian Embassy in Turkey asked Ankara to close the Dardanelles for Russian ships after the start of the military operation in Donbass.
If you look closely, Zelenskiy's message is wishful thinking. It does not state a fait accompli. Apparently, this is just one of the methods of information warfare "to raise the morale" of their fellow citizens.
“The request for closure is a kind of emotional outburst of Kyiv, which can be played up in the event of the closure of the straits as an action against Russia. Although even such, in fact, it will not be, - says the orientalist Kirill Semenov . - If Kyiv persuades Ankara to do this, then this will be done only for the propaganda effect - they say that Turkey is demonstrating its support for Ukraine. Not a single state can have any other benefits here.”
In Turkey, everyone is well aware that it is impossible to violate the Montreux Convention under any circumstances. Equidistence from all sides of the conflict is also the key to the security of the country itself.
Turkey may close the Bosporus and Dardanelles for the passage of warships, but even in such a situation, the Russian Federation will have the right to use them to return the fleet to the base. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced this on Friday . According to Cavusoglu, Turkish specialists are studying this issue, and if "martial law is officially adopted, this process will begin." “If we accept it, we will prohibit the passage of warships, but Russia will have such a right [to return ships to their bases]. Of course, for all this, Turkey must characterize the Russian attack as a “war,” the head of the republic’s Foreign Ministry explained.
What awaits Turkey in the near future? It is not difficult to predict that the pressure on Ankara will only grow. Turkey is a member of NATO. Brussels has repeatedly stated that the North Atlantic Alliance will not send its armed forces to the territory of Ukraine, but everything can change. All agreements are crumbling before our eyes. For example, massive direct deliveries of lethal weapons to Kiev began. Will Turkey be able to stand aside in such a situation?
On the other hand, President Erdogan did not take an oath of allegiance to either Kiev or Moscow. As an Eastern politician, in the event of a change in the political situation, he can always turn the helm in one direction or the other.